Drought conditions are being predicted for Tobago from the end of September into October by the Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Office.
This was revealed at the “Building Resilient Communities Workshop” held by the Tobago Emergency Management Agency and the Division of Health and Wellness at the Victor E. Bruce Financial Complex in Scarborough on Wednesday.
It comes as El Niño weather conditions are intensifying, creating drier conditions. It is a natural climate occurrence in which sea temperatures rise, causing warmer-than-normal weather conditions.
In Tobago, Acting Director of the T&T Meteorological Service, Carrie Chapman-Dumas, cautioned about the potential risks and advised persons to stay alert.
“Sometime between the end of August into September, October, we are looking at drought-like conditions for Tobago.”
This means hotter-than-normal day and nighttime temperatures and less rainfall.
“So we are expecting at least a 75% chance of higher-than-normal average temperatures both during the day and in the night and again, we are about to enter the peak season, so it might just get a little bit worse than what we are already having now.”
Already Tobago has had a rough year for rain. In May, the island received only 8mm of rainfall, when the average is 86mm. The following months were also low, resulting in lower surface and ground-level water supplies. Also complicating rainfall levels are increases in Saharan dust clouds.
“Yes, we are currently experiencing a tropical wave, but with the increase in the Sahara dust, it is battling the tropical wave. So yes, the waves are coming off Africa as they normally would every five to seven days, but they are battling that dry air. So they may usually pass, and you might get an hour or two of rainfall, but again, where is this rain falling?”
Not only is the Saharan dust restricting rainfall, it is feeding another problem that’s been impacting Tobago’s shorelines since 2011: Sargassum seaweed.
“Sargassum feeds on the nutrients in the Saharan dust.”
Ms Chapman-Dumas noted that despite the bleak predictions, El Niño is providing one relief, with a less active hurricane season, with somewhere between the likelihood of seven and 13 named storms, two to six hurricanes and one major hurricane developing in the region; but warned: “Yes, it may sound like good news, but again, it takes just one.”
Ms Chapman-Dumas said the health sector in particular should prepare for an increase in patients with heat exhaustion, dehydration and respiratory conditions as a result of the El Niño weather pattern.