International rating agency Moody’s Investors Service has published an in-depth credit analysis of Trinidad and Tobago, highlighting the country’s sizeable fiscal buffers, improving external position, and prospects for a rebound in the gas sector.
The Issuer In-Depth report, released Monday, expands on the factors both supporting and constraining the country’s credit profile. It reinforces conclusions Moody’s reached in June 2026, when the agency revised Trinidad and Tobago’s outlook from “Negative” to “Stable” while affirming its Ba2 rating.
In assessing the country’s credit profile, Moody’s considered Trinidad and Tobago’s economic strength, institutional and governance framework, fiscal position, liquidity, and susceptibility to external and other event risks.
The report points to substantial fiscal buffers underpinning the country’s credit profile, including the Heritage and Stabilisation Fund, valued at approximately 25 percent of GDP, along with Treasury cash and cash-equivalent deposits equal to a further 7 percent of GDP. Together, Moody’s notes, these assets give the country meaningful capacity to absorb shocks, support budget financing, and meet debt-service obligations during periods of stress.
Moody’s also cited the country’s comparatively high income levels US$35,956 on a purchasing power parity basis in 2025, as a continued source of economic resilience.
The agency projects a rebound in domestic gas production by the end of 2027, driven by the Manatee, Ginger and Aphrodite fields. Natural gas output is expected to rise from around 2.5 billion cubic feet per day to between 3.0 and 3.5 billion cubic feet per day by 2028–29, a development Moody’s says will support growth, exports and foreign-exchange generation over the medium term.
Moody’s also recognised the strength of the country’s institutions, pointing to its constitutional system of checks and balances, its record of clean political transitions, and governance indicators reflecting strong voice and accountability, all of which the agency says compare favourably with peer countries.
The report further acknowledged the Government’s ongoing reform agenda, including an improved track record of data transparency and measures aimed at strengthening non-oil revenue while reducing the transfers and subsidies bill.
On external buffers, Moody’s projects foreign-exchange reserves of between US$3.5 and US$4.0 billion, sufficient to provide full external debt-service coverage and approximately four months of import cover. The release notes that actual reserves stood higher, at US$5.7 billion in July 2026, corresponding to 6.7 months of import cover, though Moody’s uses a narrower metric that excludes gold and Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) from gross reserves.
The agency also highlighted the country’s favourable external amortisation profile, which extends to 2034, and noted that debt affordability remains in line with rating peers. In 2025, interest payments accounted for 12.7 percent of government revenue, slightly below the regional median of 13.1 percent. A comparatively deep domestic financial market was also cited as a factor helping to contain refinancing risks and interest costs, while the relatively small share of foreign-currency debt within total government debt limits exposure to exchange-rate movements.
Minister of Finance the Honourable Davendranath Tancoo welcomed the report, stating that the assessment reflects the policy direction the Government has pursued since taking office.
“Our sizeable fiscal buffers, our renewed and continued access to international capital markets on favourable terms, and the encouraging outlook for our energy sector all point to a more stable and confident Trinidad and Tobago,” the Minister said, adding that the Government remains committed to deepening fiscal consolidation, strengthening institutions, and building a stronger, more diversified economy.