With the date for the 2026 Budget presentation fixed for Monday, October 13th, attention now turns to trends in oil and gas prices on the international market and what they might mean for this year’s fiscal plan.
Trinidad and Tobago’s annual budgets are tied to international oil and gas prices.
This is because the energy sector is T&T’s primary source of government revenue, accounting for a significant portion of national income.
While there are efforts to diversify the economy, there remains a high dependence on the energy sector.
In the Mid-Year Budget Review in June, the Government signalled that it would adjust its oil price assumption to a more conservative estimate of US$66 per barrel for the remainder of the fiscal year.
This is a revision from the US$77 per barrel estimate projected in the 2024/2025 Budget.
While this was seen as a conservative estimate, in early October 2025, forecasts for the average oil price in 2025 have declined.
The US Energy Information Administration forecasts Brent Crude to average around US$58 for the fourth quarter of 2025, and West Texas Intermediate at between US$58 and US$62 per barrel.
The price is being influenced by anticipated oversupply from non-OPEC output and an OPEC strategy to prioritise market share.
In the case of natural gas prices, the Government indicated it planned to peg the price of gas at US$5 US per million British thermal units (MMBtu), up from the US$3.59 it was pegged to in the last Budget.
In early October 2025, Henry Hub forecasts a spot price of between US$4 and US$4.50 per MMBtu through 2026.
The key question is whether Minister of Finance Davendranath Tancoo will adopt a more conservative approach in his estimates for the 2025/2026 Budget to reflect the potential oil surplus — or whether he will bank on rising demand in Asian and other markets.
We will have to wait and see when he presents the Budget on October 13th.