The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has predicted a less active hurricane season for 2026, and while it may sound like good news, it means another worrying phenomenon for Tobago: a forecast of drought conditions.
Not only will weather conditions be drier than normal, water supplies are predicted to be under strain, along with a range of other negative conditions.
While Tobagonians are already getting weary of hot and dry conditions, Senior Meteorologist at the T&T Meteorological Office, Carrie Chapman-Dumas, said they should prepare for it to get worse.
“Increased dryness through July and this, then, will trigger short-term drought for Tobago.”
The Senior Meteorologist stated the persistent dry conditions are a result of El Niño-neutral conditions, therefore, rainfall is expected to be scarce over the next six months.
“So again, just for the first three months, near normal. Beyond that, we are expecting below-normal amounts of rainfall.”
For the month of May so far, Ms. Chapman-Dumas explained Tobago received an average of only 2.2 mm of rainfall, which is 2.5% of the average rainfall for this time of year.
“On that day, we actually measured 2.5 mm of rainfall as a direct result of the tropical wave in Charlotteville, 1.5 mm of rainfall in Roxborough, and in the Crown Point area, less than 0.1 mm.”
Along with the dry conditions, Ms. Chapman-Dumas explained other issues will arise, like hazardous seas and Saharan dust.
“There is going to be a significant plume of Saharan dust affecting us starting from today into next week. It’s one of the strongest plumes that we have had or are going to have since the year has started.”
She said other problems include strong winds, hot or warm days with temperatures above 33 degrees Celsius, bush fires, and sargassum blooms.
“Sargassum thrives on heat. If we have less rainfall, increased temperatures, sargassum is going to thrive.”
If a hurricane or tropical cyclone does occur, the Senior Meteorologist said there is greater potential for disastrous landslips and landslides when the dry soil becomes saturated.
While TEMA is ensuring that, together with stakeholders, they are doing all they can to prepare, Chief Secretary Farley Augustine has a message for all Tobagonians: “One, pray for the best, prepare for the worst. And two, drunk or sober, mind your business.”