Trinidad and Tobago’s economy is facing a tough road ahead.
That’s the message from Economist, Professor Roger Hosein, who likened the government’s early efforts to a Test cricket innings – the need for patience and strategic planning – in the face of a shrinking economy.
In an interview with TTT News, he compared the government’s first 100 days in office to a traditional Test innings: “They made a reasonable start to the innings, and so far nobody is out.”
However, he said managing the economic terrain would be rocky.
“After 10 years of basically persistent fiscal deficit, I think, with the exception of 2022, it’s a lot of recalibration that has to take place and so, I don’t blame them for being careful and cautious in their efforts in trying to get the economy back on track, given that it’s about 18% smaller than it was in 2015.”
Professor Hosein said it definitely would be an uphill task for any government in power, noting that he does not “envy” any Minister in that position.
He noted that the government is simply building their “Test innings.”
“GDP is down, murders are elevated, the labour force participation rate is down, external debt is high, the stock of reserves is down. It’s a mess. And so, it will take a lot of time, in my opinion, to get this economy back on track. So, if I were chasing 500 in a Test innings, I would take my time and try not to lose wickets too early.”
He predicts another budget deficit, citing falling oil and gas production and weak tourism inflows.
“There is no money. The country is in a very trying position. Oil production is down. Gas production is down relative to 2010. You are not seeing any extremely high spike in the price of oil or price of gas. The agricultural sector is down. Our tourism inflows relative to our peers, when compared to 2019, is down. So it’s a rough situation.”
Professor Hosein also welcomed the recent ExxonMobil deal but warned it’s a long-term play, noting that it must be slow, steady, and strategic.
“Even if we have this gas or oil coming on stream sometime in the four, five, six, seven years in the future, the challenge is between now and 2030, it’s going to be, it’s going to be playing cricket like Larry Gomes.”