The Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service is standing by its decision to issue a yellow level weather alert last Thursday, despite discontinuing the alert just five hours after it started.
Meteorologist Gary Benjamin emphasized that while forecasts are not certainties, the alert was based on sound meteorological data and ultimately proved accurate.
Last week’s yellow level alert had some raising their eyebrows, but the Met Office says it was justified.
The Met Office on Wednesday issued a Yellow Level Adverse Weather Alert to go into effect from 5am to 4pm on Thursday, but the TTMS subsequently discontinued the alert just after 10am.
Meteorologist Gary Benjamin is insisting that the forecast was accurate, and the alert helped the public prepare.
“I made a prediction because we had an approaching tropical wave. We also have a protubation, which is to occur today. And I said that the weather was going to be very variable. And my prediction was correct, okay. But what was the winning factor was the dust impact. So we cannot always get it exactly right, but we could get it to a certain extent that would help you to be better prepared.”
Mr. Benjamin also reminded the public that predictions are not guarantees but are based on data and probabilities.
“As I’m a Meteorologist for so much years, we know predictions are not prophecies. Prophecies meaning that we are sure of the future, which none of us are, and predictions meaning that we based on mathematical computations and probabilities. So if you have a probability of 80% of chance of something happening, there is also the counter probability of 20% chance of it not happening.”
Today, Sunday June 1st marks the official start of the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season, which runs through November 30th.
Mr. Benjamin pointed to September 10th as the most dangerous day on record for storms.
“We have a depiction of red and yellow. Basically what it is saying is that September 10th has been the highest incidence over time of hurricanes and storms, cyclones. And also we see from June 1st to November 1st, the most incidences of hurricane, the peak of course is September 10th.”
Looking ahead, the Met Office is planning to expand its network of weather stations, but cited several challenges.
“One of the things that could keep us back is the security of the weather stations and where we could put them. So that it makes no sense we put them 20 weather stations when we lost all in a nighttime due to people stealing them or taking parts from them.”
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has forecasted an ‘above-normal’ hurricane season.