Preliminary data uncovered by a team from the University of the West Indies St. Augustine Faculty of Engineering has revealed some concerning facts that will affect the community of Piparo.
At a community meeting held over the weekend, the team, whose main goal is to study the Piparo Mud Volcano, told residents that new research results show that the volcano is evolving.
PhD student attached to the Geoscience Programme at the UWI, Kerneese Ramjarrie, said the aim is to empower residents with factual information so they can have a better understanding of how the Piparo Mud Volcano works and what that means for their safety.
The community has a long and dangerous history with the iconic volcano. In February 1997, there was a destructive eruption, burying homes, vehicles and property under mud.
Ms Ramjarrie showed residents her team’s most recent findings, which show movement and growth of the pressurised zones. These zones are areas where underground mud, gas, and fluids accumulate under high pressure before an eruption.
“If you look closely, the shape of the zones has also changed; they have expanded in size, and they have also shifted toward the northwest in 2025, so I was able to get an approximate rate of this movement toward the northwest, and it’s approximately one metre per year, so this means that in two years it has shifted toward the northwest by two metres.”
She explained that this means the system is evolving and spreading.
“I was also able to get an estimated volume of these zones, and it is four times the volume that was expelled during the 1997 eruption. The implications, however, are clear: the need for constant monitoring and early warning systems has never been more urgent.”
To put those figures into context, in 1997, 80,000 cubic metres erupted from the volcano – the equivalent of 32 Olympic-sized swimming pools – whereas, according to the research, in 2025, there is the probability that 315,000 cubic metres could spew from the volcano. That is enough mud to fill the equivalent of 125 Olympic-sized swimming pools.
Ms. Ramjarrie stressed that there is no immediate cause for panic or immediate expectation of an eruption at this time based on the research. Residents were urged to be observant of any environmental or physical changes based on their knowledge of the volcano.
She said the research, pioneered by the UWI Faculty of Engineering Geoscience Programme, needs more equipment and funding to continue their groundbreaking work in monitoring and understanding this important geological system.