Economist and financial analyst Dr. Vaalmiki Arjoon is pointing to what he described as a major improvement in Trinidad and Tobago’s fiscal position, following the government’s mid-year budget review. While the country continues to carry a significant debt burden, Dr. Arjoon says one key indicator suggests public finances may be moving in the right direction.
Speaking on Trinidad and Tobago Today, economist and financial analyst Dr Vaalmiki Arjoon distinguished between the country’s primary and overall fiscal deficits, noting that while debt interest payments still weigh on finances, day-to-day government finances have improved. Dr. Arjoon said recent figures show a sharp drop in the primary deficit.
“The finance minister announced a primary deficit of about $101 million. And that means they’re spending $101 million more than what they’re earning in revenues this year, right? On its own, a deficit is still a deficit. But the primary deficit last year and the previous fiscal year was over $2 billion. This $101 million now is a 95% reduction on a single year on the things the government directly controls. And that’s a remarkable turnaround and a clear sign that fiscal policy is working.”
Dr. Arjoon said public debt is about 85% of GDP but stressed that the key issue is how fast it is growing. He noted that debt growth has slowed in recent years, while the government continues to meet its obligations.
“But I think the more immediate test of fiscal management as it pertains to debt is whether the rate at which new debt accumulation is slowing down, is being contained. And on the figures that I just would have presented, that rate has slowed materially within the last year.”
Dr. Arjoon also pointed to Moody’s decision to revise Trinidad and Tobago’s credit outlook from negative to stable, saying the move reflects improved near-term economic prospects. He added that if energy revenues remain strong and production increases as expected, the country could see further improvements in its credit outlook over the next two years.