Latin America and the Caribbean are moving from an era of rapid population growth to one characterised by low fertility and longer lives.
Research shows that this will create major challenges for labour, pensions, healthcare, public finances and caregiving, but also opportunities in areas such as healthcare, technology, finance and entrepreneurship, provided governments and institutions adapt quickly.
At a two-day research conference hosted by the Inter-American Development Bank, Chief Economist and Economic Counselor Laura Alfaro Maykall noted that these demographic changes are reshaping the region’s societies, economies and public institutions.
“We have seen falling rates of fertility while life expectancy has continued to increase. These trends have the potential to change our societies, our economies, and our public institutions. The implications are enormous. In 1950, the average woman in Latin America and the Caribbean had almost six children. Today, fertility rates have fallen below replacement. At the same time, life expectancy has increased from 50 years to more than 70 years, and countries like Costa Rica and Chile higher than that.”
Silver Professor in the Department of Economics at New York University, Raquel Fernández, said research revealed that the decline in fertility is also being driven by changing patterns among women.
“Young and less educated women lead the period fertility decline between 2000 and 2022. And it’s not just postponement. We see that across cohorts, completed fertility fell in every LAC cohort that we observe. Two children became the modal outcome everywhere. There’s fewer children among mothers, but it’s that rather than there’s more childlessness, but it’s the fewer children that’s playing the dominant role, not childlessness.”
She said changing perceptions about the impact of having children have also influenced fertility preferences, particularly among less-educated women.
“The reassessment of a child’s impact on one’s own circumstances is confined to the more educated. The fulfillment belief weakened in every group by a similar amount, but in terms of its association with the fertility preference, it matters mostly for less educated women. The division of household labour, despite becoming more equal, accounts for almost none of the change, with the exception of less educated men’s ideal fertility, and housing basically just doesn’t matter almost anywhere.”
The two-day research conference by the IDB will examine how demographic change is reshaping development across the region, from ageing and pensions to healthcare and labour markets. The IDB said adapting to these trends will be central to the region’s future.